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Focus on Potrero Hill

Back from vacation, and ready to blog and roll!

I’m currently working with a couple of clients looking for homes in the Potrero Hill District.  Here, we’re talking specifically about subdistrict 9.E under San Francisco’s MLS (Multiple Listing Service).

It’s an area that roughly sits between I-280 and I-101, with Cesar Chavez at its the south end and the tangle of 101/Design District/Division at its north end.  With major arteries at all ends as well as proximity to Caltrain, it’s a favorite for people who need good commute access.  It’s also got some of the best weather in San Francisco.  The crest of Potrero Hill sits at intersection of Carolina and 22nd Street.  Homes on the  “north slope” — ie.  north of 22nd Street — boast spectacular views of downtown SF and the Bay and therefore fetch a premium.   Potrero Hill has a small but upscalish shopping/cafe strip located on 18th between Connecticut and Texas.  The recently opened Whole Foods at Rhode Island and 17th hasn’t hurt either.  Architecture is a mix of broad two-story Victorians and newer modern structures designed to take advantage of the weather and the views, especially on the north slope. ...  Additional Details

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A Chart is Worth 1000 Words

A couple of months ago (gasp!) I promised to post my favorite charts from the UC Berkeley Fisher School of Real Estate and Urban Economics’ symposium on the state of the market.   I then got swamped working on my own development project up in Windsor, north of Santa Rosa, and all my blogging came to a halt.  Without further ado, here are a few of my favorite charts from the conference.  In most cases, I’ll let them speak for themselves.

Delinquency Rates
Foreclosure rates
Loans at or near negative equity

Loans Experiencing Payshock

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Here’s Why Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Are 50% Above Average And Rising ...  Additional Details

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587 Jersey One Year Later

I came across this beautiful wreck during a walk in my ‘hood last autumn and snapped this photo to catch the eerie light through the windows.

Purchased a year ago for $700,000, the 1300 sf house has grown to 4BR, 3 BA and 2462 square feet.  Voila, the new 587 Jersey, just listed at a slender $1,749,000.  That’s $710 a foot.

I toured the property last Tuesday and to be honest I was underwhelmed.    The developers squeezed the extra square footage into the original building envelope by building out the attic and the basement.  Certainly a good way to avoid all the hassle of neighborhood 311 hearings, notifications, and controversy.  But at the end of the day, you’re still buying a built out basement and a built out attic.  And it shows. ...  Additional Details

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Is Buying a House a Good Investment?

Among the scions of the real estate industry presenting at the Fisher Conference (see my previous post) was none other than Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist and Vice President of Freddie Mac.  He had a doozy of a slide set.  Here’s one my favorites.  More to follow.



The chart shows that nominal (ie. not inflation-adjusted) prices hadn’t shown an actual decline in over 50 years prior to 2006/7.  Real (inflation-adjusted) prices have fallen in previous recessions, though with the exception of 1980-82, those declines were pretty small.  This time round, though, we’re down big-time. ...  Additional Details

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Ken Rosen Says “Buy Now”

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Just back from the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic’s semi-annual symposium on all things real estate.  (FCREUE is the real estate department within UC Berkeley’s Haas Business School.)

Ken Rosen is the Center’s oft-quoted co-chair and quietly advises real estate investment funds with over $300 million in assets.  Most of the time these symposiums take a very high-level view of real estate:  it’s an asset class to be compared to other assets, and the focus is usually on institutional investors and broad real estate segments. ...  Additional Details

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Alphabet Soup Revisited: What Shape Will the Recovery Take?

Back in the still-uncertain days of September 09, every market pundit had his or her own letter for what shape the recovery would take. I blogged about Ben Bernanke‘s “U,” Liz Ann Sonders‘ “V,” and Nouriel Roubini‘s “W” here. Though one could argue the jury is still out, I think it’s fair to say that Liz Ann won round one.  The recovery is looking and feeling like a “V”  — and in fact is falling pretty much within historical patterns. (Full disclosure — I had my money on Nouriel.) ...  Additional Details

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What’s Better than One New Home-Buyer Tax Credit? Two.

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As if one new home buyer tax credit weren’t enough, the State of California recently re-enacted and extended the scope of its own version, originally passed in 2009.   As a result, some California buyers can take advantage of both — but only if all the stars align, and only for a short period of time.

The California Association of Realtors has published a useful chart that compares the two tax credits and I’ve reproduced it below (click to enlarge).

The rules are complicated, (see here for the Franchise Tax Board explanation) but here are a few key takeaways: ...  Additional Details