Real Data: December Newsletter


San Francisco Smorgasbord: A Neighborhoods Sampler

Some time soon, we’ll be doing our annual wrap-up of the SF housing market statistics. And I expect it will be a doozie. But for our November Newsletter, our Chief Analyst Guru Extraordinaire did a survey of various neighborhood values. You can find all the ones he covered here. I thought I’d cover just a few of the highlights.

Inner and Central Richmond. These neighborhoods have recovered smartly since the market crash in 2008. They are now almost back to their pre-crash peaks.

There are some gracious homes in these areas, and at $575 per square foot they represent good value, in my opinion, compared to some of the tonier neighborhoods. This assumes, of course, that you can live with the fog. Compared to 2011, prices have increased 13 to 14 percent.

(Note, we’re using home values from September through November 2012 rather than year to date values in all these charts. We feel this reflects current conditions more accurately, since values were substantially lower at the beginning of 2012.)

Luxury Northern Neighborhoods. Go pretty much anywhere north of California Street and you will find yourself in the stratosphere. Whether it’s Sea Cliff, the Heights (Presidio and Pacific) or the Hills (Telegraph and Russian), this band of presitige neighborhoods has come back with a vengeance this year, with values now up 18 to 20% over the market bottom in 2010. Absolute prices (as opposed to per square foot) are now at new all-time highs.

South Beach Condos. Head south-east to high-rise condo central and the story is pretty much the same, with prices up 15 to 18 percent off their lows. South Beach and Yerba Buena high-rises boast some of the most spectacular views in the city — and you’ll pay for them.

Noe Valley and Surrounds. Back towards San Francisco’s geographic heart, Noe Valley has seen an exceptional turnaround in prices, with homes now selling for more than they did prior to the crash in 2007/2008. The average sales price of a home may be $1.66 million, but expect to pay well over $2 million for one with bells and whistles.

Bernal Heights. A perennial “up and comer,” this eclectic neighborhood kitty-corner from Noe Valley actually saw prices fall slower than more expensive parts of the city. They didn’t reach bottom until 2011. Now, they’ve come roaring back, with prices up 19% and very close to their previous 2007 peak.

A Winter Cooling Trend? Prices and sales volume typically fall during the winter months, especially at the higher end of the market as those who can afford to take off on vacation do so. It’s actually not a bad time to be out looking to buy for that very reason — less competition. This year, however, available inventory is so low that we are predicting a relatively busy winter season.

For charts and tables on even more neighborhoods, read the complete newsletter here.

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Listed to Luxe in Under 30 Days

2601 Broadway Terrace -- $11 million, going gone

Actually, in the case of 2601 Broadway Terrace, the 9,700 sf, 7 BR 6 BA beauty shown above, $11 million was enough to take the property from “Just Listed” to “Sold” in — zero days.  For moving that fast, the buyer get a cool $950,000 off the asking price.   — Proving once again that time is money, at least for those who have the latter in buckets.

The full story is more complicated.  It was originally listed back in February 2009 for $13.5 million.  It’s been on and off the market ever since — with a fresh   start date for that “Days on Market” statistic each time it was put back on.  Last time’s the charm…. Continue reading

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Giving Credit Where It’s Due

In my opinion, most real estate brokerage companies’ and their agents’ websites/blogs don’t provide a lot of useful market information.  And that’s being polite.  There are some exceptions, however, and one is Paragon Real Estate Group. Continue reading

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The 2011 San Francisco Residential Wrap-Up: Things Are (Are Not) Looking Up



Where do you think the market went in 2011?  Come on.  Take a guess.  If you believe my own SF Association of Realtors “stronger affordability conditions, a lower cost of owning versus renting, and declining foreclosures, continue to steer the San Francisco housing market in a positive direction.” [January 2012 Market Focus Report].

“Continue.” Now that’s reassuring.  Continue reading

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Noe Valley Comes Roaring Back

While single family home prices for San Francisco as a whole can’t seem to recover beyond being around 18% down from their all-time highs, Noe Valley home prices have come roaring back since the start of the year. The three month moving average for April was down just 1% from its all-time high of March 2008.  In May, the moving average slipped back to 6.5% off the all-time high.  Take a look (click to enlarge): Continue reading

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San Francisco’s Best Schools

Before curb appeal; before “walk-score” and commute; and way before closet space and water pressure, there’s the school.  For people with kids in tow or on the way, the primary determinant of where they want to live, right after what they can afford, is the quality of the schools in the neighborhood.

Where to turn for information? Continue reading

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