Real Data SF - Misha Weidman, San Francisco Real EstateReal Data SF

September 4, 2025September 4, 2025

The San Francisco Residential Real Estate Update: An Ai Generated Glimmer of Hope?

AI generated imaged — An AI Generated Glimmer of Hope

Back in May 2018, when pundits everywhere delighted in sounding the death-knell for SF’s residential market due to a host of local challenges including lack of affordability and rampant homelessness, I suggested they might be a bit premature. In the summer of 2020, months into the Covid pandemic, Zillow published data suggesting that SF was again on the skids. Again, I suggested that “this too shall pass.” Condo and home prices proceeded to hit record highs until 2022 when higher interest rates brought the real estate party to a stop, leaving a hangover from which much of the Bay Area — indeed the country as a whole — has yet to recover.

Interest rates are still high, albeit with indications that they may be coming down “any day now.” Add in such challenges as the economic uncertainty engendered by Trump’s tariff wars; an enduring change in the remote/on-site work model; and a persistent narrative of SF’s “doom loop” decline, and it’s fair to ask whether SF can once again pull off a Houdini-like escape. Continue reading “The San Francisco Residential Real Estate Update: An Ai Generated Glimmer of Hope?”

July 5, 2023June 3, 2026

San Francisco Mid-Year Real Estate Report:
It’s Not Just the Weather That’s Gloomy

(Photo courtesy of Henri Borius @ IG_Henri_Borius_Photos)

Noe Valley, where I live, is supposed to be sunny. But I can tell you that – until this July 4 week-end’s delightful respite — I was getting tired of waking every morning to another milky white sky and a temperature reading that seemed stuck on 50º. It’s not just the weather that’s been gloomy. One article after another seems to take delight in enumerating San Francisco’s travails. The Economist, among other magazines, opines that downtown San Francisco may risk falling into a “doom loop.” The San Francisco Chronicle followed up with a list of major retail vacancies after Westfield gave up its flagship property on Market Street. And the Financial Times, in an article titled “Defaults Raise Alarm Over Stability of San Francisco’s Commercial Property,” quoted the chief executive of the company that owned two major hotels given back to their lenders as saying “San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges” including “concerns over street conditions”.

Indeed. Downtown San Francisco resembles what I remember it looking like in 2001 after the dot.com bust. More broadly throughout the city, you’re lucky if you can find a restaurant whose kitchen stays open after 9:00 pm. And homelessness continues to plague the city, just as it does the state more generally. The Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative’s recently released report found that over 171,000 people experienced homelessness daily in California. That’s more than 30% of the nation’s homeless population.

Shall we talk about interest rates (see below)? With 30 year fixed mortgages going for around 6.5%, we are back at rates last seen right before the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis brought the party to a close. For anyone who’s counting, that was fifteen years ago. And the speed of the increase has been breathtaking: rates were at 3.25% just 18 months ago (second chart). Fed policy may not have succeeded in taming inflation yet, but it’s certainly had its effect on the housing market. No one should be surprised.