Before we get deep into the numbers, let’s review some of the year’s milestones and, um, millstones.

Continue reading “The 2023 Real Estate Wrap-Up: Down from the Heights!”

(Photo courtesy of Henri Borius @ IG_Henri_Borius_Photos)

Noe Valley, where I live, is supposed to be sunny.  But I can tell you that – until this July 4 week-end’s delightful respite  — I was getting tired of waking every morning to another milky white sky and a temperature reading that seemed stuck on 50º. It’s not just the weather that’s been gloomy. One article after another seems to take delight in enumerating San Francisco’s travails.  The Economist, among other magazines, opines that downtown San Francisco may risk falling into a “doom loop.”  The San Francisco Chronicle followed up with a list of major retail vacancies after Westfield gave up its flagship property on Market Street.  And the Financial Times, in an article titled “Defaults Raise Alarm Over Stability of San Francisco’s Commercial Property,” quoted the chief executive of the company that owned two major hotels given back to their lenders as saying “San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges” including “concerns over street conditions”.

Indeed.  Downtown San Francisco resembles what I remember it looking like in 2001 after the dot.com bust.   More broadly throughout the city, you’re lucky if you can find a restaurant whose kitchen stays open after 9:00 pm.  And homelessness continues to plague the city, just as it does the state more generally.  The Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative’s recently released report found that over 171,000 people experienced homelessness daily in California.  That’s more than 30% of the nation’s homeless population.

Shall we talk about interest rates (see below)? With 30 year fixed mortgages going for around 6.5%, we are back at rates last seen right before the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis brought the party to a close.  For anyone who’s counting, that was fifteen years ago.  And the speed of the increase has been breathtaking:  rates were at 3.25% just 18 months ago (second chart). Fed policy may not have succeeded in taming inflation yet, but it’s certainly had its effect on the housing market.  No one should be surprised.

Continue reading “San Francisco Mid-Year Real Estate Report:
It’s Not Just the Weather That’s Gloomy”

Happy New Year everyone!  It’s been nearly three years since the Covid pandemic hit the world. Back in March 2020, as San Francisco’s streets became eerily quiet, it might not have been wrong to predict an apocalyptic end to the modern world and city life in particular à la Station 11, ( I highly recommend the Amazon Prime series).  As people fled the city and its density, predictions for SF’s real estate collapse propagated faster than new Covid variants.

Fast forward to mid-2022: both house and condo prices hit records of $2 and $1.3 million respectively.  For the full year, the median house price ended down just 1% from the all-time high set in 2021; condos ended down just 2% from the previous year.  Covid, Schmovid, you might say.

Continue reading “The 2022 San Francisco Residential Real Estate Wrap-Up: The Bad, The Worse, and the Ugly”

A quick reminder that Property Taxes are technically deemed delinquent if received after 5 pm on December 10. Since that falls on a Saturday this year, you’re probably ok if they receive payment by Monday at 5 pm or your payment is postmarked before that time. At least that’s the case in Sonoma County and Santa Clara County. Of course, San Francisco’s website chose not to be that clear. You always have the option of paying online.

Continue reading “Property Tax Reminder and Two Charts on the State of the Market”