(Writing this from Prague, possibly one of the most beautiful cities in Europe.) Our mid-year report is out and it reflects nothing less than a sizzling seller’s market for single family homes, one that has re-ignited after something of a two-year lull — if that’s the word for a market that’s “only” been increasing by 6 to 7 percent per year.
Year to date, median prices for single family homes have increased by 14.5% over 2017. The median price is now $1.62 million (see next two charts). ...
“49 % of Bay Area residents were looking to move out.”
Business Insider
“San Francisco is such a boomtown that people are leaving in droves.”
Wall Street Journal
“Silicon Valley is over…. In the last three months of 2017, San Francisco lost more residents to outward migration than any other city in the country.”
New York Times
“San Francisco is so expensive that more people are leaving than moving in – and it could mean disaster for the nation’s tech capital.”
SFGate
As our oft-quoted Chief Market Analyst, Patrick Carlisle, says in his recent report, “That sounds really bad.” It turns out that the sensational headline stories quoted above were largely based on questionable and selective data and then amplified in the media in the ways that we’ve all become accustomed to. This month, I’m reposting an abbreviated version of Patrick’s report. The bottom line: if everyone’s leaving the Bay Area in droves, you’d think it would be showing up in real estate prices. It’s not – on the contrary, Bay Area prices, including San Francisco, continue to hit new highs. Read on! ...
Every year we publish an in-depth look at San Francisco and the Bay Area told almost exclusively in charts. The focus is not on real estate but rather on who we are, what we do, what we believe in. While some of the charts simply confirm widely-known data– for example, that Asians as a group represent the largest minority in San Francisco (33.5%) — others reveal the most obscure and amazing things. For example, did you know that there are almost as many dogs in San Francisco as there are trees? Coincidence you say? You can find all 32 charts, with links to dozens more, here. I’ve cherry-picked some of my favorites below (Click the charts to expand them). ...
2017 is a wrap, and it’s been another solid one for residential real estate in the City by the Bay. For anyone so inclined you can read our full report — complete with over 41 charts— here. For those with less than a couple of hours to kill, I’ve sliced and diced the juiciest parts below.
Going Up
2017 was the seventh year in a row that the median price for a single family home in San Francisco increased. It’s now over $1.4 million. After taking a breather for the last couple of years, condominium prices also resumed their climb: their median price is $1.150 million. Our data indicates that fourth quarter prices for both homes and condos are already above these figures. ...
I wanted to entitle this newsletter “Winter is Coming,” but decided that comparing buyers to the Dead Walkers might not go down well. Besides, it’s buyers that have been getting the short end of the, um, spear for years now. Prices really took off in 2012; with inventory relentlessly low (see my previous newsletter, it’s been a seller’s market ever since.
But everything slows down in winter. There’s (even) less inventory, and buyers — being human — batten down the hatches from approximately Thanksgiving through early February. Who wants to be out house-hunting when the weather’s turned cold and dreary? Besides, everyone is either preparing for or recovering from the Holidays. ...
As I was getting ready to send out yet another newsletter showing further year over year gains in home prices(see first two charts below for single family homes and condos, respectively), I took a closer look at a chart that focuses on the supply side of the supply/demand equation.
“New Listings Coming On the Market” is the simplest indicator of how many homes are being put up for sale in any given time period. Take a look at the chart below, which tracks new listings (homes, condos, etc.) on a rolling 12 month basis. ...
In last month’s newsletter, I said that initial signs pointed to a newly robust Spring housing market after evidence that prices had flattened somewhat — especially for condominiums — in 2016. The data gathered through May confirms that conclusion.
The median house sales price jumped to $1,500,000, its highest point ever, about $100,000 (7%) above its previous monthly peak. The SF median condo sales price also hit a new peak at $1,200,000, $20,000 (1.7%) above its previous high.
Between 2012 and 2015, the median price of a single family home in San Francisco increase by around 70% as we came out of the Great Financial Crisis. Condominium prices increased by around 55% during the same period.
It’s not surprising, then, that the market took a breather and leveled off a bit during 2016. However, along with the return of warmer, dryer weather, buyers seem to be returning to the market in droves, and there is simply not enough inventory to meet demand. While it’s still a little too early to tell, our data suggests that things are heating up again. ...
