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The 2019 Residential Real Estate Wrap-Up

Hello All, and Happy New Decade. Thank you for all the positive feedback I’ve gotten over the last year for my newsletter. It’s a labor of love and it’s nice to know it’s appreciated. I encourage everyone to post comments right on my website to keep the conversation going, but if that’s too much trouble, just email me.

Our Chief Market Analyst, Patrick Carlisle, has done a fabulous job summarizing all the data for 2019 in a set of charts that really speak for themselves, so this month I’m simply going to repost his report without further commentary. Do note, however, that I have additional charts available for any MLS District you’re interested in, so if it’s not one of the three covered in his report, just let me know and I’ll send it to you. ...  Additional Details

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Homeless in the Bay Area – An Update

After a disconcertingly long and warm Autumn, the weather has finally turned cold and wet.  While we were warm and dry, enjoying the inevitable surfeit of organic heirloom turkey, or more “woke” foods, the Bay Area’s homeless were merely trying to survive.

Two Thanksgivings ago, when I last published a newsletter on this subject, the estimated homeless population in San Francisco was 6,858 based on the “point in time” (PIT) count that San Francisco and other cities are required by the federal Housing and Urban Development Agency (HUD) to conduct biennially.  For 2019, the count is 8,011 – an increase of 17%.  (The charts below is taken from the City’s executive summary).  ...  Additional Details

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Real Estate and Tax Law 101

Recently, several of my clients have asked for a quick rundown of various real estate and tax-related laws.  Here are some of the key laws any current or future home-owner should be aware of.  Note: the laws are complex.  This is intended to provide a starting point only.  Consult with your own attorney or tax advisor, or contact me for a referral.

1.  Home Mortgage Interest Deduction. 

You can deduct home mortgage interest on the first $750,000 ($375,000 if married filing separately) of indebtedness. However, higher limitations ($1 million ($500,000 if married filing separately)) apply if you are deducting mortgage interest from indebtedness incurred before December 16, 2017.  See IRS Pub 936. ...  Additional Details

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San Francisco Real Estate: Doom and Gloom or Vroom and Boom?

Driving with one eye on the rear-view mirror is a good thing.  Driving with both eyes on it is likely to get you into a crash.

At a recent sales meeting where 40 or so agents discussed their impressions of the autumn sales market which opened on Labor Day, quite a few bemoaned the lack of agents showing up on brokers’ tour on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.  Others said that they’d had Sunday open houses with nary a visitor.  Agent and client fatigue?  The “flood” of new listings on the market (though that’s typical for this time of year)? An ominous sign of things to come?  ...  Additional Details

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San Francisco’s new “COPA” Law could turn Owners of 3+ Unit Buildings into, um, Sausage

“Coppa” with two “p’s “ is a delicious dried pork salume of Italy and Corsica.  “COPA” is a new SF law that requires owners of buildings with three or more residential units to give a right of first offer and a right of first refusal to a designated set of non-profits before they can sell their building to a third party.  If a seller fails to comply with the statutory requirements, they may well feel that they’ve been through the COPA meat-grinder.  Penalties can include disgorgement of profits and a fine equal to 10% of the sale price they received. ...  Additional Details

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How Does San Francisco Rank as a Global City?

“Home ownership has dropped, evictions and homelessness have climbed sharply, surging demand for rental units has led to a shortage, and soaring rents are fodder for daily conversation…. In the last few years, [it] has become one of the world’s 10 most expensive places to rent, ahead of cities like Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore.”

San Francisco?  Actually, Dublin, Ireland, according to a Deutsche Bank Report cited in a New York Times article a few days ago. But before you heave a sigh of relief, consider this:  Dublin ranked 8th most expensive city in the world to rent a mid-range 2 bedroom apartment, clocking in at around USD $2,000.  San Francisco came in second – just after Hong Kong and ahead of New York.  The quoted rent for SF: a whopping $3,631, down slightly from 2018. ...  Additional Details

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Which San Francisco Neighborhoods Have Appreciated the Most?

A client of mine recently opined that he thought that Pacific Heights and other luxury neighborhoods were “overdue for a bump” in home prices. He thought that well-heeled Millennials and Gen-Z-ers were neglecting the north side of the city in favor of hipper locations like Mission/Valencia Street, Duboce Triangle, Hayes Valley and, of course, the perennial favorite Noe Valley.

As someone who has lived and worked in SF for over 30 years, I’ve witnessed my share of cycles where people bid up the “up and coming” neighborhoods (Bernal Heights is the poster child) as they get priced out of their “A-list” neighborhoods. However, when the market turns down, those same neighborhoods tend to get hit hard as buyers shift their attention back to their first choice. So, my hunch was that over the long-term, neighborhood appreciation rates would be about the same. ...  Additional Details

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Spring has Sprung: How about the SF Housing Market?

First, let me thank everyone for their positive feedback on my last newsletter regarding Unicorns, IPO’s, big press headlines, and the likely effects of all of that on San Francisco home prices.  With Lyft down 30% from its opening price, Uber looking less “über alles”, and the stock market gyrating on news of a trade war – or just, um, war – we are already in the realm of larger forces potentially swamping whatever IPO effect was so breathlessly anticipated. 

That said, after a very slow start to the typically strong spring season – and by “strong” I mean heavy buyer demand and higher prices – the residential market has notably recovered from the “weakness” of the last half of 2018.  (For more on that, check out my 2018 Real Estate Wrap-Up.) ...  Additional Details