The data is now in for 2016 and we have sliced and diced it to perfection. The results? Single family homes are on simmer, with median prices up a “mere” 6% over last year. City-wide, houses hit $1,350,000 in the last quarter of 2017, an all-time high. Meanwhile condominiums are going sideways. At $1,078,000, they were down about $25,000 from a year previous. In fact, their median price is effectively the same as it was at the start of 2015.
Noe Valley? Bernal Heights? Those are so yesterday. Maybe you’re thinking Bayview/Hunter’s Point as people search out more affordable housing at the city’s edges.
Well, you’re right about the edge but wrong about the direction. Based on our recent analyses, San Francisco’s “hottest” neighborhoods are also some of its foggiest: go west to the Sunset and its more southerly counterpart, Parkside.
Now admittedly, together these comprise a lot of smaller neighborhoods. Many would object to, say, the Inner Sunset with its vibrant retail scene centered on 9th Ave and Irving, being lumped in with the quieter environs of the Outer Sunset. Fair enough: our analysis is really of MLS Districts, rather than individual neighborhoods, but it’s no less telling for that. Continue reading
While its homes may not generally be as grand as those of Pacific and Presidio Height or St. Francis Woods, no neighborhood in the city comes close to matching the number of $2 – $4 million sales that occur in Noe Valley and its environs. Admittedly, part of the reason is that the Noe Valley and surrounds is large geographically compared to those other neighborhoods, so you’d expect there simply to be more sales. But, as any one who has tried to buy a home in Noe Valley will tell you, homes here are expensive – period.
It happens every year. People decide that holiday parties, visiting with family, and staying dry are more important than visiting open houses on the week-end. Activity drops and often so do prices. But with the first glimmers of sunshine and longer days, buyers and sellers get back into the market and the home buying/selling season takes off.
And that seems to be exactly what’s happening this year, despite the lingering effects of El Niño and a bumpy stock market ride. Take a look at the chart below:
Yesterday’s front page article in the New York Times Business Section might sound a cautionary note for the local San Francisco market. What if our tech industry Millennials’ stock options and – even – jobs (gosh!) start disappearing? I mentioned this in my 2015 Real Estate Wrap-Up as a possible brake on the Continue reading
Happy New Year everyone! San Francisco residential real estate recorded another year of double-digit appreciation last year. Our Chief Market Analyst has been busy slicing and dicing the data every which-way, and has created over 20 charts that serve up the market from soup to nuts (which, is exactly how some people view it!). You can experience the full meal at Paragon Real Estate Group’s main website. I’m doing the prix fixe menu here for those with less time and/or appetite.
Just a few days ago, The San Francisco Business Times reported that a third of the national housing experts surveyed by Zillow described the Bay Area’s housing market as being currently in a bubble. Here’s the table that shows how the experts came out on the “bubble” question, courtesy of Pulsenomics, who conducted the survey for Zillow.
“Months’ Supply of Inventory,” or MSI, shows the theoretical number of months needed to “absorb” available homes for sale in a given month based on the number of homes going into contract in a given month. The shorter the time period, the stronger the market for sellers, leading to upward pricing pressure. Longer time periods indicate slower absorption and a buyers’ market.
The chart below illustrates the dramatic difference in MSI for homes up to the median price ($1.3 million for houses, $1.1 million for condos) and in the next price segment higher, versus the luxury home segment, defined here as houses selling for $2,000,000+ and condos for $1,500,000+. (By this definition, luxury sales currently make up about 20% of San Francisco’s home sales.)
“June Gloom” has arrived in San Francisco. We’re talking about the weather, not the housing market, though buyers may well continue to feel gloomy as the market shows no signs of letting up. Both condo and home prices continue to hit record highs, with the average home selling for 10% over the original asking price.
There may be a typical summer slowdown (reflected in the trailing drop in third quarter numbers above) as the Continue reading