San Francisco's Luxury Home Market Doing Very Well, Thank You
After nearly two years of sharp declines, Noe Valley single family home prices recovered smartly in 2010. Not enough, however, for anyone to claim that Noe Valley is somehow immune from market forces affecting the rest of San Francisco. As of December 2010, Noe Valley home prices were still down 20% from their all-time highs, almost exactly the same as prices for homes city-wide.
Here’s the chart (double click):
In my last post, I included a chart that showed both single family homes and condos stuck in relatively narrow price ranges over the last 18 months or so. At the end of 2010 the median price of a single family home ($744,000) was about $80,000 more than that for a condo/TIC.
But that doesn’t tell us anything about “value.” Now, let me count the ways we could argue about what “value” means, but I think we’d agree that how each property type has weathered the market battering over the last few years has to be relevant. Take a look at this table: ...
Judging by the number of houses I’ve seen being redone from the studs up, together with the number of homes that seem to be hitting the market at over $2 million these days, you’d think that Noe Valley real estate is doing very well once again, thank you very much.
Exhibit A: 729 Elizabeth Street.
Recently, I blogged about the fact that condominiums seemed to be holding up better than single family homes in terms of their decline from their all-time highs.
At the same time, I noted that there was only about $100,000 difference in median value between condos and homes. That seemed like a small delta and I was interested to see whether it was, historically speaking. Turns out that it is.
Since, until recently (ahem!), home prices along with everything else have tended to go up, I decided not to look simply at the difference in price between condos and homes. Instead, I converted the price difference to a percentage of the median value of condos sales for the given period. This represents the “premium” for owning a home rather than a condo. Here’s the result. ...
Not long ago I did a guest post at The Front Steps in which I showed that city-wide home prices had fallen back to November 2003 levels. Here’s the chart.
That prompted some discussion about whether the results would be different if you excluded home sales in some of San Francisco’s outlying areas, such as the Bayview and the Westlake districts. These and other neighborhoods are included in MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Districts 3 and 10. Here’s the official MLS district map. ...
…or so proclaims my venerable data-crunching guy at the REreport. All the data is available and updated monthly under my “Market Trends” tab, organized by MLS District, or city-wide, annual or monthly, single family or condo — it’s all available here.
This chart, from the lead-in page, shows unit sales and median prices for both homes and condos are up from Jan 09, but down year over year.
But not so fast. Much as I’d love to believe we’ve hit bottom, it’s hard to know whether this is anything more than the usual seasonal uptick in sales now that we’re coming out of the winter doldrums. Here’s the chart for single family homes sales. See those incredibly regular troughs right around Jan/Feb each year? I’d say it’s way to early to declare a bottom. ...