Noe Valley Back Smartly in 2010

Author: Jack French -- Used under Creative Commons Permission 2.0

After nearly two years of sharp declines, Noe Valley single family home prices recovered smartly in 2010.  Not enough, however, for anyone to claim that Noe Valley is somehow immune from market forces affecting the rest of San Francisco.  As of December 2010, Noe Valley home prices were still down 20% from their all-time highs, almost exactly the same as prices for homes city-wide.

Here’s the chart (double click):

Noe Valley Still Goin’ Down?

Author: Jack French -- Used under Creative Commons Permission 2.0

Back in May 2009, I showed that Noe Valley was not immune from the slump in prices affecting the rest of the city, despite suggestions to the contrary from real estate agents, mavens and media.

Have things gotten any better?  Well, no.  And maybe.

Here’s a chart showing percentage change in single family home prices for the last 14 months, relative to their all-time highs  (click to enlarge).  (All figures are 3 month moving averages.)

After reaching an all time high in March 2008, prices plummeted.  Just a year later, in the midst of fears of a global Depression, home prices were down 30%.  Did things get better?  No, they got substantially worse.  Despite an impressive  city-wide recovery in 2009, with prices going from 30% down to around 18% down for single family homes at  year’s end (see more detail here) , Noe Valley home prices continued to retreat.  In October and November 2009, prices were down 35%.  At year’s end, they’d barely clawed back two percentage points. Not surprisingly, days on market (DOM) remained stubbornly high for all of 2009. ...  Additional Details

“San Francisco Property Sales and Prices Rebound in February”

…or so proclaims my venerable data-crunching guy at the REreport.  All the data is available and updated monthly under my  “Market Trends” tab, organized by MLS District, or city-wide, annual or monthly, single family or condo — it’s all available here.

This chart, from the lead-in page, shows unit sales and median prices for both homes and condos are up from Jan 09, but down year over year.

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But not so fast.  Much as I’d love to believe we’ve hit bottom, it’s hard to know whether this is anything more than the usual seasonal uptick in sales now that we’re coming out of the winter doldrums.  Here’s the chart for single family homes sales.  See those incredibly regular troughs right around Jan/Feb each year?  I’d say it’s way to early to declare a bottom. ...  Additional Details