While single family home prices for San Francisco as a whole can’t seem to recover beyond being around 18% down from their all-time highs, Noe Valley home prices have come roaring back since the start of the year. The three month moving average for April was down just 1% from its all-time high of March 2008. In May, the moving average slipped back to 6.5% off the all-time high. Take a look (click to enlarge):
If no one feels like popping corks, it may be because prices have been stuck in a narrow range since they hit their post-bubble bottom two years ago. Take a look (click to enlarge):
My last post was about the fact that Noe Valley median home prices are still down 30% from their all time highs despite a smart recovery in median home prices city-wide. This, despite my sense that there seem to have been a burst of Noe Valley homes hitting the market in the $2 million range and above recently.
At long last, here’s the promised data on Noe Valley condos and TIC’s.
First, a look back (in anger?) at the make-up of Noe Valley sales in 2009.
Note that there were more than twice as many condos sold as TICs, and more homes sold than condos and TICs put together. (What’s a TIC? — Check out my series of posts on Tenancy-In-Common Interests, starting here.)
Also, that absurdly long DOM for TICs was distorted by 3 TICs at 201 Hoffman that took 410 days to sell. Still, without those sales, DOM for TICs (tired of the acronyms yet?) was still 99 days. And I’d be somewhat skeptical of the whopping difference in price between TICs and condos as well: TICs sales often don’t have a price per square foot listed, so there are very few data points — and there are very few sales to begin with. ...
Back in May 2009, I showed that Noe Valley was not immune from the slump in prices affecting the rest of the city, despite suggestions to the contrary from real estate agents, mavens and media.
Have things gotten any better? Well, no. And maybe.
Here’s a chart showing percentage change in single family home prices for the last 14 months, relative to their all-time highs (click to enlarge). (All figures are 3 month moving averages.)
After reaching an all time high in March 2008, prices plummeted. Just a year later, in the midst of fears of a global Depression, home prices were down 30%. Did things get better? No, they got substantially worse. Despite an impressive city-wide recovery in 2009, with prices going from 30% down to around 18% down for single family homes at year’s end (see more detail here) , Noe Valley home prices continued to retreat. In October and November 2009, prices were down 35%. At year’s end, they’d barely clawed back two percentage points. Not surprisingly, days on market (DOM) remained stubbornly high for all of 2009. ...
Pretty much everything I said about how single family homes fared in 2009 also applies to the condo/TIC market. (TIC’s, aka Tenancy In Commons are similar to condos. For more information on TICs, see my three-part series starting here.)
Condo/TICs hit their all-time highs about a year later than homes did — in July 2008. But they’ve fallen from their highs almost exactly as much as homes have. Condos/TICs were down 17%, just one percent better than single family homes.
Less than two months into the new year and a brand new decade and already 2009 may seem as far away as a bad dream – assuming you still have a job.
It’s hard to remember just how close to the brink of catastrophe we seemed to be just a year ago. Major financial institutions – failed. Credit – impossible to get. Sales—anemic.
With the benefit of hindsight, not to mention survival, some are now criticizing Paulsen, Bernanke, et al., for their haste in rescuing the financial system, but I, for one, will reserve my scorn for the appalling judgment of the likes of Morgan and Goldman and their obscene bonuses. ...
On the anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ demise and the near-collapse of global markets, it seems appropriate to take a step back from our little corner of heaven for a wider view.
Given where we were a year ago, the world seems to have heaved a huge, if cautious, sigh of relief. During the chill days of February, the stock market had lost more than half it’s value. Now it’s down “only” 35%.
San Francisco home prices have also improved. In January home prices were down 37% from their all-time highs. By July prices had recovered 11%. In August, however, prices fell back 2%. That’s a pretty stiff drop. (Click the chart for a big version.) ...