Category: Blog

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San Francisco’s Hottest Neighborhoods: Not Where You Might Think

Noe Valley? Bernal Heights?  Those are so yesterday.  Maybe you’re thinking Bayview/Hunter’s Point as people search out more affordable housing at the city’s edges.

Well, you’re right about the edge but wrong about the direction.  Based on our recent analyses, San Francisco’s “hottest” neighborhoods are also some of its foggiest: go west to the Sunset and its more southerly counterpart, Parkside.

Now admittedly, together these comprise a lot of smaller neighborhoods.  Many would object to, say, the Inner Sunset with its vibrant retail scene centered on 9th Ave and Irving, being lumped in with the quieter environs of the Outer Sunset.  Fair enough:  our analysis is really of MLS Districts, rather than individual neighborhoods, but it’s no less telling for that. ...  Additional Details

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Bay Area Housing Affordability: A Grab-Bag of Charts

In my July Newsletter, I did a wrap-up of the year so far and concluded that the market, for the moment at least, seems to be going sideways. Post Labor-Day inventory has already shown a big jump in anticipation of the short buy/sell season between now and the end of November. It’s too soon to say whether the new inventory will excite buyers to loosen their wallets or simply cause them to be pickier.

So with the market on “pause,” I thought I’d put together a grab bag of charts that cover SF housing affordability, both from the standpoint of owning and renting. Many view housing affordability as a central concern for San Francisco’s long-term future. Changes in the rental ...  Additional Details

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Real Data SF July Newsletter

Mid-Year Report – A Soft Landing For San Francisco Residential Real Estate?

With the data in for the for the first six months of 2016, the cooling trend that I’ve noted in recent newsletters is increasingly clear. Since sales typically dip in the middle of summer due to seasonal factors (everyone, especially those who own or are looking to buy higher end homes, is on vacation), it’s best to compare 2nd quarter results with those of a year ago.

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In Q2 2016, the year-over-year appreciation rate was 4% for houses and less than 1% for condos, as compared with 2014 to 2015 rates of 20% and 18%: A significant slowdown. However, median home prices are still at their highest point ever. ...  Additional Details

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The San Francisco Rental Market and Why It Matters

For starters, the most recent US Census Bureau estimate (2014) concludes that about 57% of San Francisco’s population are renters.  That’s reason enough, especially when housing affordability is perhaps the major social and economic challenge that San Francisco faces over the long-term.

Rent and Condo Conversion Control.  With strength in numbers comes political power: San Francisco’s Rent Control ordinance applies to the vast majority of San Francisco’s housing stock, regulating everything from the rental increases that landlord’s can charge to existing tenants to how much interest owners have to pay renters on their security deposits.  Other ordinances have severely restricted the ability of owners to “remove” units from the rental market by converting them to condominiums.  Regardless of whether you think these controls are a good or bad idea, they have created an incredibly complicated legal landscape.  Whether you’re a tenant or an aspiring landlord, it pays to know your rights.  Here’s my favorite cheat sheet, courtesy of the Law Firm of Bornstein & Bornstein. ...  Additional Details

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Bubble Pop? One Developer’s View of the Condo Market

The Mark Company has been developing iconic projects throughout the Bay Area and beyond for years and they put out excellent monthly summaries that track new construction across the city, from approval stage through to completion and sale. In my last newsletter, I referred to recent articles that had misquoted Paragon data to suggest, essentially, that the sky was about to fall on San Francisco Real estate. The Mark Company just published its own detailed rebuttal, and for those might be thinking about a high rise condo purchase, it’s worth a read. You can find it here. ...  Additional Details

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Calling Giants Lovers. Live Next to Home Plate!

_110782_rawI’ll be hosting an open house at 207 King Street, Unit 410, this Sunday, May 1, between 1 and 3:30. Located a pitcher’s throw away from AT&T Park, this condo is not of the all-too-common shoe-box variety! With 2 beds and 2 baths occupying around 1800 SF on two levels, it is genuinely spacious. Tons of natural light, soaring ceilings, and sleek finishes complete the package. Priced to sell at $1.75 million, that’s below the minimum $1,000 a foot you can generally expect to pay for much less appealing condos in the area. Located in The Glassworks, one of Mission Bay’s premier boutique buildings. Come visit! ...  Additional Details

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Real Data SF April Newsletter

Are Condos Cooling? Are Homes Still Hot?

Paragon’s April newsletter created quite a stir recently when it was misquoted in a Business Insider article to suggest that San Francisco’s condo market is heading for a bust. That, in turn, prompted cries of foul play by one of San Francisco’s leading condo developers – presumably because even the suggestion of a slowdown would not be good for business. (If you have an SF Chronicle subscription, you can read all about it here.)

Sensationalist headlines make good copy but misleading news. A fair reading of the newsletter suggests that there is increasing evidence of softness in the high-end condo market, represented most clearly by the glass towers of SOMA/South Beach, etc. ...  Additional Details