Category: Economy

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A Chart is Worth 1000 Words

A couple of months ago (gasp!) I promised to post my favorite charts from the UC Berkeley Fisher School of Real Estate and Urban Economics’ symposium on the state of the market.   I then got swamped working on my own development project up in Windsor, north of Santa Rosa, and all my blogging came to a halt.  Without further ado, here are a few of my favorite charts from the conference.  In most cases, I’ll let them speak for themselves.

Delinquency Rates
Foreclosure rates
Loans at or near negative equity

Loans Experiencing Payshock

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Here’s Why Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Are 50% Above Average And Rising ...  Additional Details

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Is Buying a House a Good Investment?

Among the scions of the real estate industry presenting at the Fisher Conference (see my previous post) was none other than Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist and Vice President of Freddie Mac.  He had a doozy of a slide set.  Here’s one my favorites.  More to follow.



The chart shows that nominal (ie. not inflation-adjusted) prices hadn’t shown an actual decline in over 50 years prior to 2006/7.  Real (inflation-adjusted) prices have fallen in previous recessions, though with the exception of 1980-82, those declines were pretty small.  This time round, though, we’re down big-time. ...  Additional Details

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Ken Rosen Says “Buy Now”

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Just back from the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic’s semi-annual symposium on all things real estate.  (FCREUE is the real estate department within UC Berkeley’s Haas Business School.)

Ken Rosen is the Center’s oft-quoted co-chair and quietly advises real estate investment funds with over $300 million in assets.  Most of the time these symposiums take a very high-level view of real estate:  it’s an asset class to be compared to other assets, and the focus is usually on institutional investors and broad real estate segments. ...  Additional Details

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Alphabet Soup Revisited: What Shape Will the Recovery Take?

Back in the still-uncertain days of September 09, every market pundit had his or her own letter for what shape the recovery would take. I blogged about Ben Bernanke‘s “U,” Liz Ann Sonders‘ “V,” and Nouriel Roubini‘s “W” here. Though one could argue the jury is still out, I think it’s fair to say that Liz Ann won round one.  The recovery is looking and feeling like a “V”  — and in fact is falling pretty much within historical patterns. (Full disclosure — I had my money on Nouriel.) ...  Additional Details

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Case-Shiller Sounds a Cautiously Positive Note

Last week, Case-Shiller released January data for its closely watched national housing index.  Nationally, things are looking up – well, make that flat.  And that’s good news. In the wonderfully backward language of the report, the index’s year over year rate of decline “improved.”  Basically, we are back to where housing values were a year ago.

Since for most of us our homes represent our biggest asset, that’s pretty good news when you consider how bleak things looked back in March of 2009.  Just think of how you were feeling about your 401(k)s. ...  Additional Details

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Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

In an article entitled Great Time to Buy (Famous Last Words), last Sunday’s New York Times took a swipe at perennially optimistic real estate agents who have never seen a time that wasn’t a good time to buy a house.  Fair enough.  Self-interest and magical thinking are not limited to the real estate profession.

For the record, I’ve never suggested to anyone that buying a home is a good “investment.”  You can do much better in the stock market and probably even in bonds. ...  Additional Details

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The View From Space: 2010

The View From Space

The View from Space – 2010

Ken Rosen is a smart guy.  He’s the co-chair of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley and the investment adviser of choice to some of the biggest players in real estate, from banks to insurance companies to REITS. Ken might not be able to appraise your house, but he could tell you how each sector of the real estate economy has fared anywhere in the country, and probably in many parts of the world.

Once or twice a year I spend the day in a windowless hotel conference room listening to Ken and some of the biggest heads in the real estate biz expounding on the state of real estate. These guys (and they are mostly guys) look at real estate through the lens of global macro-economics and finances.  Want to know where interest rates are going?  They study yield curves on T-Bills and monetary policy in the capitals of Europe.  This is “the view from space.” ...  Additional Details

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A Faltering Housing Market?

George may have left office a year ago, but there appears to be a growing consensus that the likely shape of the recovery will be a “W.”  How appropriate, if you believe that we are reaping the bitter fruit of his administration’s policies.

A front page article in the Business Section of last Wednesday’s New York Times, grimly entitled “An Upturn in Housing May be Reversing,” pulls together recent and contradictory data from various sources, including Case-Shiller, Moody’s, and The National Association of Realtors.  The conclusions are sobering. ...  Additional Details