Category: Blog

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So Much For the Great Bay Area Exodus – Part 2: Condominiums

In my previous posting, we looked at how well the single family home market held up during 2020 and continues to do so, particularly at the luxury end.  The story for condominiums is more complex, with prices for those located in highly urban neighborhoods like South of Market/South Beach/Mission Bay, still below their previous highs but with levels of activity suggesting that a rebound is either underway or imminent.  Read on for details!

Condominiums in the Doldrumiums?

Condominiums and their ilk have comprised a majority of all residential sales for about two decades.  The reason is simple:  most of the new homes created since then are condos – just look at the SF’s skyline.   They also comprise 88% of sales under $1 million (see side bar in pie chart below). ...  Additional Details

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August 2021 Newsletter: So Much for the Great Bay Area Exodus: Part 1 – Single Family Homes

Back in February 2021, the august NY Times veritably crowed “They Can’t Leave the Bay Area Fast Enough,”  citing nothing less than “the end of a tech era.”  I was skeptical.  The Bay Area’s demise as a tech and people magnet had been predicted many times before.  So I’ll confess to a certain amount of relish at being proven correct when, just a couple of weeks ago, the self-same paper announced that “tech workers who swore off the Bay Area are coming back.”  That would be obvious to anyone who has been driving Bay Area highways since mid-June. ...  Additional Details

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SF Real Estate in the Time of Covid: Rumors of the Patient’s Demise Are Once Again Exaggerated

I’m barely into the New Year, and The New York Times headline shrieks “They Can’t Leave the Bay Area Fast Enough !!!” [OK, the exclamation points are mine.] Not only that, but “a tech era,” no less, is drawing to an end. Can the extinction of the dinosaurs, not to mention the collapse of San Francisco real estate values, be far behind?

It’s true that San Francisco residential rents have fallen by 27%.  It’s true that many techies and non-techies have found the lure of a suburban back yard in the time of Covid isolation a compelling reason to move away from the City, especially when all the restaurants, bars, gyms, and other urban entertainment options are closed.  Indeed, according to the annual United Van Lines survey, more people moved out of California in 2020 than into it, and that goes for the Bay Area as well. ...  Additional Details

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Which way is Up? Mixed Messages from San Francisco Housing Data

I was wrong – kind of. In my April newsletter I opined: “The longer the crisis continues, the more likely it is that it will do long-lasting damage to the economy and the real estate market itself.” But, looking at the numbers in the chart below, you’d never know that we are now eight months into a global pandemic.

Median house sales prices are well over where they were a year ago.  Condo prices are not down by much.  Days on market (DOM) for single family homes is a brisk 28 and they are still selling at a slight premium to asking price (102.5%).  The number of combined luxury houses and condos selling above $2.5 million is up substantially (177), as is the number of super luxury houses and condos (22). ...  Additional Details

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Once Again, Rumors of San Francisco’s Demise May Be Premature.

In the spring of 2018 a slew of articles breathlessly foretold of mass migrations out of the Bay Area due to a host of reasons –including lack of affordable housing, long commutes, and the anti-immigrant policies of the Trump administration.  I blogged about how those articles ignored a lot of data to the contrary here.  Home prices continued to increase.

Now here comes Zillow with a comparative analysis of major metro areas which suggests that people are leaving the Bay Area in droves.  The implication, once again, is that prices are going to plunge. ...  Additional Details

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Charting Covid-19’s Effect on San Francisco Real Estate – An Update

In my last newsletter, I shared some short-term data on what San Francisco’s Shelter-In-Place order was doing to San Francisco residential transactions.  In short, it caused activity to crash to a halt.  It’s still too soon to determine what the pandemic’s mid- or long-term effects will be, but there has been a change.  Before going into details, let’s recall how we got here.

How We Got Here

On March 16, San Francisco, along with six other Bay Area Counties, announced a Shelter-in-Place Order, prohibiting all but “Essential Activities” and “Essential Services.” Governor Gavin Newsom announced a state-wide equivalent two days later. ...  Additional Details

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Important: San Francisco Property Taxes Deadline Extended

Hello All:

The San Francisco Treasurer’s Office has extended the deadline to pay the second installment of property taxes for the 2019/2020 tax year to May 4, 2020. 

The usual date is April 10.

The penalty for late payment is hefty, so make sure you get your check in the mail postmarked no later than May 4.

And consider getting the regular date for each installment into your favorite perpetual calendar app:

The first installment is due November 1 of each year, and delinquent if not paid by December 10.
The second installment is due February 1 of the following year,  and delinquent if not paid by April 10. ...  Additional Details

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Charting Covid-19’s Effect on San Francisco Real Estate

I remember how the world changed on September 11, 2001.  There was the horror of the actual event, the new sense of our own and our loved ones’ vulnerability to a random death. There were the new protocols for entering public spaces and traveling, the scanning of faces and backpacks that we’d never done before.  And there was grief.  We mourned not just the catastrophe but an irredeemable loss of innocence – not mankind’s first, and certainly not its last, but no less wrenching for that.  ...  Additional Details