Author: Misha Weidman

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A Faltering Housing Market?

George may have left office a year ago, but there appears to be a growing consensus that the likely shape of the recovery will be a “W.”  How appropriate, if you believe that we are reaping the bitter fruit of his administration’s policies.

A front page article in the Business Section of last Wednesday’s New York Times, grimly entitled “An Upturn in Housing May be Reversing,” pulls together recent and contradictory data from various sources, including Case-Shiller, Moody’s, and The National Association of Realtors.  The conclusions are sobering. ...  Additional Details

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Continued Improvement in the Housing Market or Borrowing from the Future?

CB104955

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported yesterday that existing home sales in October rose to their highest level in more than two years.  Nationally, sales were up 10.1% over September and up 23.5% year over year.

Most of the increase in sales, however, was not in the western region, where sales were  only up 1.6% from the previous month.  (Oh, the devil is always in the details.)  And more “good news”:  The western region median price of $220,200 — clearly this is not San Francisco — was down 14.7% year over year. ...  Additional Details

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TICs, San Francisco’s Involuntary Reflex — Part 3: The Condo Premium Per Square Foot? Or not…

Last post, we determined that the current difference between the average (annual) price of a condo and that of a TIC is  $86,000, down from a high of $124,364 in 2006.  (That’s a 30%+ drop, by the way.)  Here’s the chart again (sorry for the funky transparency on the sales volume bars).

Condos vs. Tics Annual Average Sales Prices

That’s useful if you’re looking at an average-priced TIC and you’re curious about how much of a premium you’d have to pay for an average-priced condo.  But how about reducing that to a per square foot premium? ...  Additional Details

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TICs, San Francisco’s Involuntary Reflex: Part 2 — The Data

There are weeks when I look through the new listings on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) and it seems like there are more TICs for sale than condominiums.  Turns out, this just isn’t true.  Here’s a chart showing relative sales volumes since 2003 (click to enlarge).

Units Sold By Month
Look at that!  Excluding those wonderfully regular dips every Xmas, condo sales are generally at around 200 units per month.  TICs rarely break 40.

Here’s how TIC and condo median prices stack up against each other on a monthly basis. ...  Additional Details

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TICs, San Francisco’s Involuntary Reflex: Part 1

Inconvenient and Ugly

A tic is an involuntary and habitual muscle spasm, frequently in the face.  If you live in San Francisco, a TIC is also what many people end up with when they buy a flat in one of San Francisco’s classic 2-4 unit buildings.  Like the medical condition, TICs are inconvenient at best and can be downright ugly at worst.

TIC stands for “Tenancy-In-Common,” a form of legal title by which multiple owners take title to a single property.  In San Francisco, this form of taking title has come to be used as an end-run around the City’s restrictions against converting multi-tenant buildings into condominiums. ...  Additional Details

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Fears of a New Chill In Home Sales

winter home

That was the title of an October 27 article in the New York Times, and, as one of my readers and clients pointed out, it’s what I’ve been tentatively suggesting as a possible scenario for this winter. See here, for example.

And, ironically, the gloomy head-line announced yet another “positive” month of data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The little up-tick in the index from last month’s July data that I discussed as a possible “dead cat bounce” continued in August. ...  Additional Details

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One of the Other Things I Do: Windsor Live+Work

I’ve been itching to do some posts and I have some interesting info coming on TICS (Tenancy-In-Common Interests) vs.  condos.  However, the last few weeks have been taken up readying my development project, Windsor Live+Work, for a major re-submission to the Town of Windsor (we’re talking just north of Santa Rosa, folks, not the seat of the British Monarch).  Windsor Live+Work is a 12 unit live/work project that combines some beautiful and innovative architectural design with forward-thinking urban planning ideas and “green” construction standards.  Here’s the 3D rendering, which I received just last week (click — it looks really good big!). ...  Additional Details

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Enough about Owning — How about San Francisco Rentals?

I came across a site recently that not only provides a database of available rental units for many US cities, but also has nice, easy-to-read charts on rental trends for specific areas.  Unfortunately, you can’t get very precise in terms of zip code or neighborhood, but it certainly give you a good sense of rental trends.  And trends, as we all know, are what it’s all about!

Welcome to RentBits.com:

I’ve added them to my blog-roll.