SF Home Prices at 2003 Levels

Sorry, folks, but it’s that bad — or good, depending on your perspective.

I tracked average and median prices going back to 2000 for the ten combined MLS districts that comprise the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service — the big database that realtors use to list properties and record sales information .  (The MLS District Map is here, on my Market Trends page.)  Here are the results (click to make the chart bigger):

san-francisco-price-trends-2000-presentsmall

Pretty scary stuff, especially when you look at the suislide (a new word is born?) that started in June of last year and shows no signs of slowing down. ...  Additional Details

Dataquick vs MLS: why the discrepancies?

In my October 27 blog discussing the Case-Shiller Index, I referred to Bay Area County stats from Dataquick that showed San Francisco’s median prices to be down 12.7% from a year previous (YOY) vs.  the 11.36% that I’d quoted in my October 23 blog.

The reason for the discrepancy?  Dataquick compiles its figures from the San Francisco County Recorder’s Office; my numbers come from the MLS.  Transactions like foreclosures or transfers between family members or between legal entities generally don’t involve agents or brokers so they don’t show up in the MLS.  They also tend to be at lower values because they are often at below market rates, so Dataquick’s numbers will always be somewhat lower than the numbers pulled from the MLS.  Thanks to Rick Campbell at the REReport for his quick response. ...  Additional Details

Update to Halloween Horror: Did it just get scarier….??

The day after I posted my take on the Case-Shiller Index, they came out with July’s report (they’re always trailing three month averages) showing a continuing decline in the San Francisco MSA.  Wait for it:  down 27.3% from July 2007.  Are we worried?  Not that much.  Why not?  Read my October 27 blog:  “San Francisco” means most of the Bay Area when it comes to the Case-Shiller Index.

You want scary?  Median prices are down 45% year over year in Contra Costa County. ...  Additional Details

Just How Bad Is It? (Answer: depends)

I’ve been digging a bit deeper into the raw data that’s used to generate the beautiful graphs you can find here and which I used to generate the MLS District graphs in my blog of a few days ago.

So I thought I’d check how September 08’s median home prices (condos will come later) compared to their all-time highs and to the median prices of a year ago, both by MLS District and for all of San Francisco.  I didn’t include District 8 (North-east) because it doesn’t have enough data to be useful, and I also didn’t include the southern-most districts of SF (3 and 10) because to be honest I don’t follow them closely. Here’s the result: ...  Additional Details

What on earth does this chart mean? (Click to make it bigger)


I was wondering how prices in various MLS Districts in San Francisco were doing relative to each other and to San Francisco as a whole so I graphed the monthly median prices of single family homes in all but the southernmost districts (3 and 10) for January 2005 through September 2008 and came up with this beauty.  (Please click on it to enlarge.)

So, a couple of things jump out.  Northeast District 8 (the pale dotted line), which includes tony areas like Russian Hill and Telegraph Hill as well as the Financial District, is all over the place in terms of price swings.  There are very few transactions from month to month (sometimes none at all) because there are so few single family homes in those areas.  Bottom line:  forgeddaboutit. ...  Additional Details