Who to Believe? Case Shiller or Ken Rosen

Case Shiller may be talking about double dip but Ken Rosen sees a somewhat brighter future for San Francisco’s residential real estate market.

Here’s the doom and gloom at the national level from the recently released Case Shiller Report for January 2011:

These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. ...  Additional Details

A Faltering Housing Market?

George may have left office a year ago, but there appears to be a growing consensus that the likely shape of the recovery will be a “W.”  How appropriate, if you believe that we are reaping the bitter fruit of his administration’s policies.

A front page article in the Business Section of last Wednesday’s New York Times, grimly entitled An Upturn in Housing May be Reversing,” pulls together recent and contradictory data from various sources, including Case-Shiller, Moody’s, and The National Association of Realtors.  The conclusions are sobering. ...  Additional Details

Districts 3 and 10, R.I.P.

The Excelsior, Bayview, Hunter’s Point, Oceanview, Ingleside:  these are some of the neighborhoods included in the San Francisco Association of Realtors’  MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Districts 3 and 10.  It’s been suggested here and elsewhere  that perhaps these non-“core” San Francisco neighborhoods have been pulling down San Francisco’s home prices disproportionately.  The theory, plausible enough, is that these more modestly-priced neighborhoods would be feeling the effects of the economic slowdown more than the tonier “core” neighborhoods, whose denizens’ bank accounts might provide a little more padding against hard times.
I recently published a chart that compared the percentage change of Districts 3 and 10 from their all-time highs to that of the city as a whole.  Some readers of theFrontSteps expressed an interest in seeing what the chart would look like if you excluded those districts from the data set for the city as a whole.  (Districts 3 and 10 make up over 20% of the city’s single family home sales for the 5 year period covered by the chart.)  I aim to please, so I ran the numbers again and here are the results.
focus-on-dists-3-and-10-vs-all-dists ...  Additional Details