Just a few days ago, The San Francisco Business Times reported that a third of the national housing experts surveyed by Zillow described the Bay Area’s housing market as being currently in a bubble. Here’s the table that shows how the experts came out on the “bubble” question, courtesy of Pulsenomics, who conducted the survey for Zillow.
It’s Now a Buyers’ Market for Higher End Homes and Condos
“Months’ Supply of Inventory,” or MSI, shows the theoretical number of months needed to “absorb” available homes for sale in a given month based on the number of homes going into contract in a given month. The shorter the time period, the stronger the market for sellers, leading to upward pricing pressure. Longer time periods indicate slower absorption and a buyers’ market.
The chart below illustrates the dramatic difference in MSI for homes up to the median price ($1.3 million for houses, $1.1 million for condos) and in the next price segment higher, versus the luxury home segment, defined here as houses selling for $2,000,000+ and condos for $1,500,000+. (By this definition, luxury sales currently make up about 20% of San Francisco’s home sales.) ...
San Francisco Holiday Events Calendar
Come Visit My New Kite Hill Condo Listing
Tuesday and Wednesday night (10/20 and 10/21) from 4:30 to 7 pm, I’ll be serving wine and cheese in this great 2 BR/1.5 BA condo tucked in beside Kite Hill. The condo will serve stunning views that stretch from Corona Heights to Kite Hill, with the San Francisco skyline and views of the Bay in between. $975,000.
The Autumn SF Real Estate Market Survey: “We are neither blind optimists, nor inveterate pessimists….”
Our Chief Market Analyst, Patrick Carlisle, was recently quoted in a Vanity Fair article in the same paragraph as renowned economist John Maynard Keynes. The subject, a perennial one these days: whether the Silicon Valley, which now indisputably extends north at least as far as the new Salesforce Tower at 415 Mission Street, is in a bubble that’s about to pop. Of course, Keynes is long-dead, but we at Paragon are lucky to have our own resident guru sifting the tea leaves.
“Fall” is in the Air?
My last newsletter, entitled “The Crash That Wasn’t (At Least Not Yet ),” was among my most popular ever. The teaser headline may have had something to do with it. We continue the sensationalist theme here with some observations on the start of the Fall housing market season – typically one of the busiest times.
At our regular sales meeting this morning, attended by around 60 of our finest San Francisco agents, the main topic was whether collectively we were seeing a significant change in market conditions from say, the Spring of 2015. As I’ve said before, things generally slow down a bit in the summer and then heat up in September before cooling off again at Thanksgiving as the holidays and the cold weather kick in. The consensus was that this summer followed the typical pattern. But is what we’ve seen over the last few months just seasonal or is something more fundamental going on, ...
The Crash That Wasn’t (at least not yet) – The Stock Market and SF Home Prices
As of this writing, the S&P 500 took just 3 days to claw back about half of the 11% slide that started on August 18. The last time the S&P went that low was about 10 months ago. With volatility a given, who knows where it will be by the time this post gets published.
1000 Ways to Enjoy San Francisco & the Bay Area This Summer
Guests are coming, the kids are out of school, or you just want to do something different than usual. Summer has arrived in one of the most beautiful and multi-dimensional places on earth, and here is a wide variety of ideas for making the most of it.
Dinner, brunch, burritos, burgers, bars, music, dance, theater, running, biking, hiking, and things to do with visitors, children and dogs.
Food & Drink
Top 100 Restaurants
Zagat’s Best
Outdoor Dining & Drinking
Best Meal Delivery
Best Breakfast ...