Does anyone really know what’s going on? Despite the gloom and doom of my recent posts (Waiting for the Other Sheep to Drop, Alphabet Soup: What Shape will the Recovery Take?), the latest publication of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) on Tuesday trumpets: “Fifth Consecutive Increase!” The LEI is supposed to predict economic activity approximately 6 months into the future, so you’d think that a five-month run would mean it’s time to celebrate, especially given what looks like the impressive bounce shown in this graph. ...