Case Shiller Chimes in With Good News: US Down only 17%!

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Case-Shiller published its closely watched indices yesterday.  Hooray! The broadest CS index shows that the rate of decline in the nation’s largest housing markets has reversed in recent months.  Now we’re only going down 16% year over year instead of 20%.

They also point out that we are now back to 2003 values, which also holds true of San Francisco.  Here’s my chart from an April blog:

Core Area Medians vs All Districts

Before you go out and celebrate, Case-Shiller has “San Francisco” down a whopping 26.1% year over year.  Why the quotes?  Because it’s really the “San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area” and it includes ALL of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo, and … San Francisco County. That’s 5 counties folks, a factoid often omitted even by such august publications as the New York Times (see today’s front page article). ...  Additional Details

Dataquick vs MLS: why the discrepancies?

In my October 27 blog discussing the Case-Shiller Index, I referred to Bay Area County stats from Dataquick that showed San Francisco’s median prices to be down 12.7% from a year previous (YOY) vs.  the 11.36% that I’d quoted in my October 23 blog.

The reason for the discrepancy?  Dataquick compiles its figures from the San Francisco County Recorder’s Office; my numbers come from the MLS.  Transactions like foreclosures or transfers between family members or between legal entities generally don’t involve agents or brokers so they don’t show up in the MLS.  They also tend to be at lower values because they are often at below market rates, so Dataquick’s numbers will always be somewhat lower than the numbers pulled from the MLS.  Thanks to Rick Campbell at the REReport for his quick response. ...  Additional Details