Case-Shiller sees small drop in Bay Area home prices in July – 3 charts included

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July 2014 was released today, and indicated a small – less than 1% – dip in high-price-tier houses. (The Case-Shiller aggregate Index for all Bay Area home price tiers dropped even less, about 4 tenths of a percent.)

For the past 3 years, home prices have surged in the spring and then plateaued during the summer. It is too early to speculate whether home prices are trending down a bit after the spring market frenzy, which is certainly possible. For any definitive sense of home price trends, we will have to wait until the autumn-selling season numbers are in. Autumn this year began with a big surge in the number of new listings in September. ...  Additional Details

Autumn Selling Season Begins & New Listings Surge in San Francisco

Coming out of the summer slowdown, the last big sales season of the year runs from early September to mid-November (when the market usually retreats into semi-hibernation until mid-January). September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings and this year, it started out with a bang: 300 new listings hit the market in the first week after Labor Day. As a point of comparison, May, the biggest new-listing month YTD, had a total of 720.

A list of San Francisco’s most recent listings can be found here, easily sortable by neighborhood, property type and price: New Home Listings ...  Additional Details

Updated S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for San Francisco Metro Area

The Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of the San Francisco’s and Marin’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most of our attention.” The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. June’s Index was released on the last Tuesday of August. ...  Additional Details

Seasonality in the San Francisco Homes Market

Seasonality in the San Francisco Homes Market

August 2014 Report by Paragon Real Estate Group

Seasonality typically affects inventory levels, buyer demand and median home prices, often in significant ways – as is illustrated in the following charts. However, it is not the only factor affecting market conditions and trends – general economic conditions, new construction projects coming on market, sudden changes in interest rates, stock market IPOs, natural and political events, and other factors can and do impact the market as well. It should also be noted that new listings and new sales occur every month of the year – and sometimes, depending on prevailing market conditions and the specific property, buying or selling during the slower periods can be the smart strategy. ...  Additional Details

Bay Area Home Price Report

Bay Area Real Estate Values

Bay Area Luxury Home Sales

San Francisco Home Prices by Neighborhood

August 2014 Report by Paragon Real Estate Group

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Bay Area Home Prices – Mapped

Our updated map of comparative house values around the Bay Area: The trend virtually everywhere around the Bay has been continued appreciation since the recovery began in earnest in early 2012. Please note that median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are statistical generalities that may fluctuate for a number of reasons. ...  Additional Details

Market Shifts in the San Francisco Homes Market

Where to Buy in San Francisco for under $1,000,000

Shifts in the San Francisco Luxury Home Market

The Biggest San Francisco Home Sales of the Year

The Paragon August 2014 Market Report

For your convenience, a map of San Francisco neighborhoods is included at the bottom of the newsletter. Adjusting your screen-view to zoom 125% or 150% will make the charts easier to read.

Buying a Home for under $1 Million

There has been a lot of chatter in the media recently about the median home price in San Francisco hitting $1,000,000. Here’s a look at the neighborhoods where one is most likely to find something under that price. ...  Additional Details

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Update

The Case-Shiller Index report for May 2014 for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was released yesterday, showing another small bump in home prices from April to May. The aggregate or total index is now up approximately 55% since the market recovery began in early 2012. The 5 counties covered by the index are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa.

Our full report can be found here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Reflects_Accelerating_Home_Prices.

However, Case-Shiller also breaks out home price changes by price tier – low, middle and high – and each tier has experienced dramatically different trend lines since 2000. The low price tier – homes found mostly in Alameda and Contra Costa counties (though also other Bay Area counties not in the SF MSA, such as Solano, Sonoma and Napa) experienced a crazy bubble much larger than the other price tiers and subsequently experienced a much bigger crash due to foreclosures and short sales. The middle and high price tiers, which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo, experienced much smaller bubbles and crashes. This is dramatically illustrated in the first graph below. ...  Additional Details