Does anyone really know what’s going on? Despite the gloom and doom of my recent posts (Waiting for the Other Sheep to Drop, Alphabet Soup: What Shape will the Recovery Take?), the latest publication of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) on Tuesday trumpets: “Fifth Consecutive Increase!” The LEI is supposed to predict economic activity approximately 6 months into the future, so you’d think that a five-month run would mean it’s time to celebrate, especially given what looks like the impressive bounce shown in this graph. ...
Alphabet Soup: What Shape Will the Recovery Take?
On the anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ demise and the near-collapse of global markets, it seems appropriate to take a step back from our little corner of heaven for a wider view.
Given where we were a year ago, the world seems to have heaved a huge, if cautious, sigh of relief. During the chill days of February, the stock market had lost more than half it’s value. Now it’s down “only” 35%.
San Francisco home prices have also improved. In January home prices were down 37% from their all-time highs. By July prices had recovered 11%. In August, however, prices fell back 2%. That’s a pretty stiff drop. (Click the chart for a big version.) ...