Real Data SF November Newsletter

Welcome to the very first edition of Real Data SF, a monthly newsletter about the San Francisco real estate market.

If real data, with lots of charts and analysis is your cup of tea, then please read on. Because that’s what I’ll be doing here. In addition, there’ll be the occasional recipe, restaurant review, and heads-up on fun stuff to do in SF. Comments, feedback, suggestions, always welcome of course. Now let’s crunch some numbers!

San Francisco’s Housing Market Kicks in the After-Burners

Many people who don’t necessarily follow real estate that closely aren’t aware that SF’s residential market has been on fire since the start of 2012. Take a look at this chart:

Paragon Real Estate Group
Starting in January, demand – followed by prices – took off. After a steep climb through April, prices took a breather through the summer – only to take off again in autumn.

What’s more, because this chart includes both distressed and non-distressed sales across all neighborhoods in SF – from Seacliff mansions to Bayview bungalows– it doesn’t reflect the extent to which the middle and upper end of the housing market has recovered. If you look at non-distressed sales above $1.5 million – and that’s hardly a luxury home in SF any more – prices on a per square foot basis are within striking distance of their 2008 all-time highs, fueled by an enormous rally in the third quarter.

Will this continue? Though activity typically slows down during the winter and holiday months, we’re not sure it’s going to happen this year. Why? High demand and very low inventory.


For more charts, including one that shows our bubble-pop-recovery cycle all the way back to 1982, click here.

Only sales reported to MLS are included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. (c) Paragon Real Estate Group

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