Bubble Pop? One Developer’s View of the Condo Market

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The Mark Company has been developing iconic projects throughout the Bay Area and beyond for years and they put out excellent monthly summaries that track new construction across the city, from approval stage through to completion and sale. In my last newsletter, I referred to recent articles that had misquoted Paragon data to suggest, essentially, that the sky was about to fall on San Francisco Real estate. The Mark Company just published its own detailed rebuttal, and for those might be thinking about a high rise condo purchase, it’s worth a read. You can find it here.

While it’s clearly in the Mark Company’s interests to deny that the condo market is about to fall, our own data and conclusions are very much in line with theirs. In a nutshell, despite the 35,000 units that are in the pipeline for development, all but about 7,000 of them are in huge long-term developments that may or not ever get approved. Meanwhile SF’s economy and job creation remain strong.

To their credit, they don’t deny that the market is recalibrating. Here’s the takeaway: “These key facts help us point toward a normalizing market, not one on the verge of another recession.”

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