The pundits are making dramatic, even doom-laden pronouncements about what is going to happen with interest rates (and the housing market), though they’ve been wrong so many times over the past few years, these “expert” predictions might be taken with salt-shaker’s worth of salt, perhaps with lemon and a nice shot of tequila.
Obviously, interest rates are an important component of the real estate market. But this chart gives a little context to what has occurred recently: the blue column is the average 30-year interest rate for the first 5 months of 2013, when everyone was dancing with glee at how low the rates were; the black line at the end represents the interest rate on Friday, June 6th, though it is true that it briefly hit 2 tenths of a percentage point higher earlier in the week (so if you like, add the tiniest smidgeon more to the black line).
I don’t know where interest rates will go, though they will probably rise over time—and perhaps there will be an upcoming interest-rate shock. But terror seems a bit premature.
Founded in 1977, the San Francisco International LGBT Film Festival (Frameline) is the longest-running, largest and most widely recognized LGBT film exhibition event in the world. As a community event with an annual attendance of over 55,000, the Festival is the most prominent and well-attended LGBT arts program in the Bay Area. Frameline37 is a competitive film festival with cash prizes attached to each of our Audience Awards for Best Feature, Best Documentary and Best Short. Frameline37 also has two juried awards for Outstanding First Feature and Outstanding Documentary Feature.
Framelines’s mission is to strengthen the diverse lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community and further its visibility by supporting and promoting a broad array of cultural representations and artistic expression in film, video and other media arts. Locals know that this is a fantastic event, so advance tickets are suggested but at-the-door tickets are available until seating runs out. Reserve your seats early so as not to miss out on the event featuring directors, actors and other queer media icons.
June 20th to June 30th, 2013
For more information go to www.frameline.org/festival/
The Economist has a good article (about the US real estate market not being in a bubble) and created a terrific interactive graph that allows you, by metro area (you have to click on San Francisco to add it to the graph), to compare home price changes in real terms over time, versus average incomes, and versus rents, from 1987 to 2013. San Francisco is at the top of the chart in percentage increase and increases in prices in real terms, but still rates right at the long-term average in home prices versus income and versus rents. The Economist was one of the very first to identify the housing bubble inflating – running strongly against the then current opinion of other pundits – so I think their opinion on whether another bubble is about to burst in the U.S. is worth hearing. (FYI: The do believe there are serious housing bubbles in certain other countries.)
”The verdict: in most markets houses are near or above their long-run values, but none looks bubbly. Price rises in Phoenix, Tampa and Miami have restored values only to their long-run averages. In Las Vegas they are still below that long-run average. Many things could trip up the housing recovery, from stalling job growth to higher mortgage rates; at the moment, a bursting bubble is not one of them.”
You can play around with the interactive chart, and you should read the article below the chart widget:
Here are 3 of their charts with San Francisco added:
Home Price Appreciation in Real Terms (Adjusting for Inflation):
Home Prices Against Average Income:
Home Prices versus Rents:
The San Francisco Marathon is a crown jewel for the city. Started in 2001 with the desire to create one of the most beautiful and challenging urban road race marathons in the United States, the Wipro San Francisco Marathon offers an idyllic summer running event. The course was built organically with the local runner in mind, the quintessential San Franciscan healthy outdoor-lover, embodying the natural, sustainable, genuine beauty of the city itself. True to local style, the Marathon values authenticity.
The race prides itself on being a bit different from the pack, like the city itself. The race is more individual, the course more challenging, the terrain more beautiful – an event The Wall Street Journal referred to as “The Race Even Marathoners Fear.” Attracting endurance athletes from around the country and the globe, those who come to this event share the same amazing aspects of the city that the residents love – to embrace and celebrate the running of the country’s toughest big city marathon and reward over 25,000 runners with unparalleled, breathtaking views and a Well Earned Finish.
June 16th, 2013
Full marathon registry fee is $135. Half marathons, progressive marathon, 5k run/walk and munchkin marathons priced accordingly.
For more information and to register go to www.thesfmarathon.com/
A beloved Bay Area tradition every summer Sunday for nearly eight decades, the Stern Grove Festival invites family and friends gather to relax, picnic and enjoy performances by some of the world’s greatest artists in this glorious natural setting, the Stern Grove natural amphitheater. Surrounded by giant eucalyptus, redwood and fir trees, Sigmund Stern Grove is one of Northern California’s favorite concert sites. In keeping with the founder’s vision, the wide selection of performers reflects the Festival’s commitment to exceptional programming and to serving the diverse audiences.
Sunday, June 16th, 2013 marks the start of the 76th consecutive Stern Grove Festival with a concert starring musical guests Michael McDonald and Boz Scaggs. The concert is free to the public with first come, first serve seating. All Stern Grove concerts start at 2:00 PM. Please note that there is no public parking and guests are encouraged to take advantage of public transit. MUNI bus routes directly serve Sigmund Stone Grove.
Sunday, June 16th at 2:00 PM PST
Sigmund Stern Grove, 19th Avenue and Sloat Boulevard
No admission fees and no tickets required.
For more information go to www.sterngrove.org/
The 59th annual North Beach Festival is considered one of the country’s original outdoor festivals with Washington Square Park and several neighboring blocks taken over in this giant two-day street fair. With three stages for entertainment over 125 arts and crafts booths, 20 gourmet food booths, Italian street painting, beverage gardens and the blessing of the animals, there’s sure to be a little something for everyone.
Live music fills the streets of “Little Italy” during the two-day long Festival. Renewing the older traditions of when North Beach was a complete and thriving community, the sights, sounds, smells and flavors available will recall the strength and passion of San Francisco’s Italian heritage. Free to attend and family friendly, the North Beach Festival is sure to delight summer festival goers.
Saturday and Sunday, June 15th and 16th, 2013, from 10:00 AM to 6:00 PM PST
North Beach District, San Francisco
For more information go to www.sresproductions.com/north_beach_festival.html
Once a year, on the second Sunday in June, the Haight-Ashbury community hosts a special celebration and everyone in the World is invited. Music is in the air, people dance in the streets, a festive atmosphere springs up and Haight Street, once again, becomes the center of Peace, Love and Happiness. The Haight Ashbury Street Fair is one of the most highly anticipated public events in San Francisco. The fair stretches along Haight Street from Masonic to Stanyan Street and features a main stage of entertainment at each end, but you never know who will be appearing as the line-ups are never advertised.
The event attracts over 100,000 people who take to the streets in an atmosphere reminiscent of the Summer of Love for which the event is famous. This, the 35th anniversary celebration, promises to live up to its world-famous reputation with entertainment for families with children, many local bands, top-drawer comedy, music, food and drink and an opportunity to celebrate with many other like-minded people. Admission to the Fair is free, so don’t miss out on this joyful and historical event.
Sunday, June 9th, 2013
600 Ashbury Street, San Francisco
Free to the public.
For more information go to www.haightashburystreetfair.org
The Case-Shiller Index for March just came out and showed a big jump, just beginning to reflect the surge in appreciation we’ve been experiencing in 2013. (January and February Index readings mostly reflect sales in late 2012.) The March reading was 3.5% higher than February (last month) and 15% higher than March 2012.
The Index is for the 5-County SF Metro Area, not just for the city of San Francisco, and since it reflects a 3-month rolling average, is published 2 months later and sales close 4-8 weeks after the offers are negotiated, it is typically 3-5 months behind the actual market on the street. I would expect another significant jump in April’s Index.
The complete Paragon report on the Case-Shiller Index is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF
In its 38th year, The Union Street Festival is one of San Francisco’s largest free annual events, launching the city’s summer street festivals with an atmosphere of open-air market and traditional fair ware in the heart of historic Cow Hollow, San Francisco’s premiere shopping and residential district. Featuring over 150 boutique artists from across the country, the Festival offers opportunities to browse and buy jewelry, pottery, paintings, photography, furniture and bath & body supplies while providing entertainment by the best of the Bay Area’s hardest working Indie bands.
Adding to the atmosphere of the Street Festival, over two dozen gourmet food booths and bistro style cafes plus multiple beer gardens offer nourishment while visitors absorb the sights and sounds.
June 1st and 2nd, 2013, 10:00 AM to 6:00PM PST
Union Street – Gough to Steiner
Free to attend.
For more information go to www.unionstreetfestival.com/